Imaginary scenarios can influence world events

The concept of a scenario, which is used in areas such as social planning and some fields of research, was originally borrowed from the world of the theatre and was first launched in the 1950s by the American Herman Kahn in the context of futurology studies. Kahn had in mind a description of possible developments in a particular area, for example military technology or civil transport. He introduced the term “scenario” to make the point that this was something other than traditional forecasting (which simply described the most likely course of development).
His idea was, by making use of several basically different scenarios, to broaden thinking about the future and to provide a better basis on which to arrive at robust conclusions. Such scenario-based planning soon found a place in the defence sector in a number of countries including Sweden and it was also adopted by large corporations, for example Shell, where much of the method-related pioneering work was carried out.
There is also a parallel scenario tradition, involving so-called normative scenarios, which takes values and interests into account. This is often referred to as “backcasting”. Backcasting scenarios reason from a desired future situation and offer a number of different strategies to reach this situation. Both these techniques have long been used and further developed by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) in the context of assignments from civil and military customers and in a variety of research projects.
Forecasts and trend predictions need to be based on stable patterns of development in the particular field of interest concerned. Demographic trends have, over long periods of time, been characterised by such stability and the same applies, for example, to the growth of car ownership over much of the period since the Second World War. But there are also many examples of situations in which the course of development appears more irregular, or where periods of stability are interspersed with more chaotic spells.
One example is the fall of the Berlin Wall, which changed the balance of power in the world, a change that is still having repercussions. There are new actors and new types of conflict which can affect Sweden’s security. The Cold War meant that there was a fixed structure for the threats that could be envisaged, a structure that no longer exists. At the same time, modern society faces new, imponderable challenges, for example globalisation and the effects of climate change on the environment which, in the long term, entail a higher risk of pandemics and extreme weather phenomena. One might say that that there is a broad or qualitative uncertainty as to the possible effects of global developments in terms of new risks and threats to Sweden’s security.
Both scenario planning, as conceived and developed by Kahn and Shell, and advances in normative scenario planning such as backcasting, have emerged as a reaction to the inability of prediction and trend-based planning to handle situations involving rapid changes and possible trend breaks. Scenarios can be used where one cannot rely on trends or if one considers that unfavourable trends should be broken.

Developments not easily influenced
Shell’s scenario planning emerged in the early 1970s as a result of the realisation that current trends and development patterns could no longer be taken as given. In that situation it became necessary to broaden future-oriented analysis. This marked the beginning of the development of scenarios for the surrounding environment as a basis for strategic assessments. Many other companies followed and today such techniques are also used in the public sector.
In the tradition of Shell’s work, a set of qualitatively different scenarios were developed to handle the fundamental uncertainty as to which direction development would take. The scenarios focus on the environment in which the organisation works and describe the possible courses of development in areas which the organisation cannot influence but which can have a major effect on its own operations. An example of such a factor in the surrounding environment is the effect of the price of oil on a transport business. Such scenarios have since been used to develop a strategy which can function in all the different scenarios, so-called robust planning. Usually three or four different scenarios are developed. This allows a relatively broad spectrum to be covered while keeping the number of scenarios to a manageable figure.
Shell’s real contribution is the development of a participating process in which the users, that is to say the decision makers concerned, together with external experts, participate in the scenario development through workshops with structured brainstorming. Computer models based on so-called morphological analysis have been developed by FOI and a number of other research institutes as an alternative to the Shell approach but with the same effort devoted to developing qualitatively different scenarios. One example in which the scenario process in a Shell-type approach was led by FOI is described in the article on page 50.
The normative scenario approach (backcasting) emerged, as did the explorative approach, during the 1970s. In the wake of the oil crises a number of countries carried out normative energy system studies with the aim of finding long-term solutions to the dependence on oil, something that was increasingly recognised both as a security threat and as an environmental problem.

Desirable visions of the future
The concept of backcasting was launched with the idea that it could be used to develop future situations that were desirable, or at least to help solve relevant social problems. Subsequent analysis would address the question of how that future situation or situations could be achieved. In Sweden, FOI carried out early studies which attracted attention. Among the results were two articles, published in the highly regarded journal Science during the 1980s, on the future energy situation in Sweden. This is one topical example of a backcasting study carried out by FOI.

So when does either scenario planning or backcasting represent the best choice of method?
Scenario planning, with scenarios of the surrounding environment in which an organisation is operating, can be appropriate when the activities to be planned are strongly dependent on factors outside that organisation’s control while, at the same time, a number of these factors could conceivably develop in different ways, in other words when there is a significant degree of uncertainty. Backcasting, on the other hand, may be an appropriate choice if there is a major problem which cannot be resolved by means of current trends, but where the relevant actors should together be able to bring about a trend break.
Karl Henrik Dreborg is an analyst at FOI and a specialist in the scenario technique known as backcasting.

New electronic display be used

One of the latest inventions in the field of light emitting devices might change the way people light their homes and design clothes. The device represents a thin film of plastic able to conduct electricity and create solar power.
Scientists working on the international project are looking forward to bring the organic light emitting devices to the masses. Thus the invention could significantly cut costs by billions of dollars each year.
Due to the fact that the organic light emitting devices are very thin and flexible, electronic display screens could be easily created on nearly every material, thus, for example, clothing could, for the first time in history, display specific electronic information.
There are various ways of using the this OLED, like for example change the color of clothes, beer can would be able to display various sports results. In addition the OLED is much more efficient than the light bulb used today.
Currently these devices are applied in mobile phones and MP3 players. However, such OLED is not quite reliable for large TV or computer screens.
In order to make the device more efficient so later to launch it to mass market, the international consortium of researches, Modecom, headed by the University of Bath, United Kingdom, started a three-year project which will cost about $1,700,000.
Modecom comprises 13 groups from 9 universities and two companies. There are three groups from the United Kingdom, six groups from the United States and one group from China and one each from three European countries including Belgium, Italy and Denmark. Only the European countries and China will receive financial aid from the European Union.
The coordinator of Modecom is Dr Alison Walker, who represents the Department of Physics of the University of Bath. "This is a long-term project, and the contributions of many scientists are needed for its success ... Success in achieving the goals of cheap, efficient and long lasting devices is essential as we must do everything we can to reduce our energy costs," he stated.