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Monday, February 22, 2010

Imaginary scenarios can influence world events

The concept of a scenario, which is used in areas such as social planning and some fields of research, was originally borrowed from the world of the theatre and was first launched in the 1950s by the American Herman Kahn in the context of futurology studies. Kahn had in mind a description of possible developments in a particular area, for example military technology or civil transport. He introduced the term “scenario” to make the point that this was something other than traditional forecasting (which simply described the most likely course of development).
His idea was, by making use of several basically different scenarios, to broaden thinking about the future and to provide a better basis on which to arrive at robust conclusions. Such scenario-based planning soon found a place in the defence sector in a number of countries including Sweden and it was also adopted by large corporations, for example Shell, where much of the method-related pioneering work was carried out.
There is also a parallel scenario tradition, involving so-called normative scenarios, which takes values and interests into account. This is often referred to as “backcasting”. Backcasting scenarios reason from a desired future situation and offer a number of different strategies to reach this situation. Both these techniques have long been used and further developed by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) in the context of assignments from civil and military customers and in a variety of research projects.
Forecasts and trend predictions need to be based on stable patterns of development in the particular field of interest concerned. Demographic trends have, over long periods of time, been characterised by such stability and the same applies, for example, to the growth of car ownership over much of the period since the Second World War. But there are also many examples of situations in which the course of development appears more irregular, or where periods of stability are interspersed with more chaotic spells.
One example is the fall of the Berlin Wall, which changed the balance of power in the world, a change that is still having repercussions. There are new actors and new types of conflict which can affect Sweden’s security. The Cold War meant that there was a fixed structure for the threats that could be envisaged, a structure that no longer exists. At the same time, modern society faces new, imponderable challenges, for example globalisation and the effects of climate change on the environment which, in the long term, entail a higher risk of pandemics and extreme weather phenomena. One might say that that there is a broad or qualitative uncertainty as to the possible effects of global developments in terms of new risks and threats to Sweden’s security.
Both scenario planning, as conceived and developed by Kahn and Shell, and advances in normative scenario planning such as backcasting, have emerged as a reaction to the inability of prediction and trend-based planning to handle situations involving rapid changes and possible trend breaks. Scenarios can be used where one cannot rely on trends or if one considers that unfavourable trends should be broken.

Developments not easily influenced
Shell’s scenario planning emerged in the early 1970s as a result of the realisation that current trends and development patterns could no longer be taken as given. In that situation it became necessary to broaden future-oriented analysis. This marked the beginning of the development of scenarios for the surrounding environment as a basis for strategic assessments. Many other companies followed and today such techniques are also used in the public sector.
In the tradition of Shell’s work, a set of qualitatively different scenarios were developed to handle the fundamental uncertainty as to which direction development would take. The scenarios focus on the environment in which the organisation works and describe the possible courses of development in areas which the organisation cannot influence but which can have a major effect on its own operations. An example of such a factor in the surrounding environment is the effect of the price of oil on a transport business. Such scenarios have since been used to develop a strategy which can function in all the different scenarios, so-called robust planning. Usually three or four different scenarios are developed. This allows a relatively broad spectrum to be covered while keeping the number of scenarios to a manageable figure.
Shell’s real contribution is the development of a participating process in which the users, that is to say the decision makers concerned, together with external experts, participate in the scenario development through workshops with structured brainstorming. Computer models based on so-called morphological analysis have been developed by FOI and a number of other research institutes as an alternative to the Shell approach but with the same effort devoted to developing qualitatively different scenarios. One example in which the scenario process in a Shell-type approach was led by FOI is described in the article on page 50.
The normative scenario approach (backcasting) emerged, as did the explorative approach, during the 1970s. In the wake of the oil crises a number of countries carried out normative energy system studies with the aim of finding long-term solutions to the dependence on oil, something that was increasingly recognised both as a security threat and as an environmental problem.

Desirable visions of the future
The concept of backcasting was launched with the idea that it could be used to develop future situations that were desirable, or at least to help solve relevant social problems. Subsequent analysis would address the question of how that future situation or situations could be achieved. In Sweden, FOI carried out early studies which attracted attention. Among the results were two articles, published in the highly regarded journal Science during the 1980s, on the future energy situation in Sweden. This is one topical example of a backcasting study carried out by FOI.

So when does either scenario planning or backcasting represent the best choice of method?
Scenario planning, with scenarios of the surrounding environment in which an organisation is operating, can be appropriate when the activities to be planned are strongly dependent on factors outside that organisation’s control while, at the same time, a number of these factors could conceivably develop in different ways, in other words when there is a significant degree of uncertainty. Backcasting, on the other hand, may be an appropriate choice if there is a major problem which cannot be resolved by means of current trends, but where the relevant actors should together be able to bring about a trend break.
Karl Henrik Dreborg is an analyst at FOI and a specialist in the scenario technique known as backcasting.

New electronic display be used

One of the latest inventions in the field of light emitting devices might change the way people light their homes and design clothes. The device represents a thin film of plastic able to conduct electricity and create solar power.
Scientists working on the international project are looking forward to bring the organic light emitting devices to the masses. Thus the invention could significantly cut costs by billions of dollars each year.
Due to the fact that the organic light emitting devices are very thin and flexible, electronic display screens could be easily created on nearly every material, thus, for example, clothing could, for the first time in history, display specific electronic information.
There are various ways of using the this OLED, like for example change the color of clothes, beer can would be able to display various sports results. In addition the OLED is much more efficient than the light bulb used today.
Currently these devices are applied in mobile phones and MP3 players. However, such OLED is not quite reliable for large TV or computer screens.
In order to make the device more efficient so later to launch it to mass market, the international consortium of researches, Modecom, headed by the University of Bath, United Kingdom, started a three-year project which will cost about $1,700,000.
Modecom comprises 13 groups from 9 universities and two companies. There are three groups from the United Kingdom, six groups from the United States and one group from China and one each from three European countries including Belgium, Italy and Denmark. Only the European countries and China will receive financial aid from the European Union.
The coordinator of Modecom is Dr Alison Walker, who represents the Department of Physics of the University of Bath. "This is a long-term project, and the contributions of many scientists are needed for its success ... Success in achieving the goals of cheap, efficient and long lasting devices is essential as we must do everything we can to reduce our energy costs," he stated.

Monday, October 26, 2009

We Miss About Middle School

Field Trips
Remember the pleasure of getting to miss a day of school to goof around with your friends while not listening to a weirdo museum tour guide go on about some crap you’re not going to be tested on? I do. Now the closest thing I get to a field trip is forcing myself to eat an extra Taco Bell Chalupa on my lunch break so I can spend the next hour of work taking a shit.

You were bigger and better than somebody
The hierarchy that existed within middle schools is the only social system that has ever made sense to me. Whenever life got you down or someone was giving you a hard time, there was an entire grade of kids younger and smaller than you to take it out on. This safety net was enough to make the humdrums and hardships of middle school life tolerable. Now, when your boss yells at you, you turn around and bitch out your intern. The intern calls his dad, who knows your boss and you get yelled at again. Something here is messed up.

You could still be anything you wanted
Remember being told that you could grow up and be anything you wanted? The parents of our generation filled our heads with this idealistic propaganda that the world was a place of opportunity. On my block alone there were three astronauts, two rock stars, five presidents of the United States , 12 profession athletes and one tattoo artist (Timmy was a bit odd). The inveterate concept and all likelihood of being able to be anything you want slowly washed away as the tide brought in more practical prospects. Now you’re 24, working at a Chuck E. Cheese and throwing a fit because some little bastard kid beat your high score on Time Crisis III. Your mom, instead of telling you that you can be whatever you want, is telling you to move out of her basement and the closest you get to being an astronaut is getting blazed out of your skull from an eighth of this new hydroponic shit that just came in from Canada sold to you by old neighbor Timmy.

Pranks and sexual harassment were still acceptable
In the old days a good, elaborate prank went a long way. Whether it was something like a whoopee cushion or peeping in the girls locker room, it was guaranteed good fun. Try and pull a stunt like that in the office and you’re guaranteed a lawsuit. For example, a colleague of mine, or should I say former colleague of mine, got fired for turning his pockets inside out, whipping out his dick and pretending to be an elephant. It’s just not fair.

Girls Weren’t Ruining My Life
In middle school all you had to do was treat a girl like dirt and she would stick to you like mud. If that didn’t work just have your friends do all the talking. They didn’t care how much money you made, because no one made any. Every girl was a virgin, no one had STDs, and shooting blanks was the most effective contraceptive. A girl’s body was still uncharted waters and unexplored territory rather than that neighborhood that used to be nice, but started to wear down a bit; now cops don’t go there and there is a hooker on every block. Those were the days. I don’t know why I wasted them begging my older brother to buy me playboys. there were way better porno mags to be had.

You were able to eat anything
google_protectAndRunFresh off my latest coronary, I long for the days when ice cream was a meal, candy was a snack and pussy wasn’t too laced with mercury to eat.

You didn’t need alcohol to have fun
Remember when you are a kid and you could have fun without the help of drugs and alcohol? Imaginary force-fields, crayons, sticks, spinning around in circles and thumb wars were just a few of the things we used to find thoroughly entertaining. Now, I can’t even imagine sitting down to a family dinner without at least 3 drinks in me. It’s gotten so bad that I can’t even go to the movies anymore because by the time the previews are over I am not even high anymore.

Summers meant something
The first large chunk of our existence on this planet was spent crossing off calendar days until summer arrives. You used to relentlessly look forward to flipping all your teachers the bird and entering those golden days; the days where it was socially acceptable to play your Alice Cooper CD on repeat and fulfill every human being’s dream of doing absolutely nothing. Now, if anything, summers mean back sweat, swamp ass, getting your ball sack stuck to your leg and dick stuck to your sack. Summers mean weekends at your girlfriend’s parent’s house and getting weird looks from people because you’re an overweight, balding man running after an ice cream truck. No worries, only about 14,479 days left until retirement.

People were proud of you for things
There was a time when parents, teachers and friends used to shell out vast amount of praise for even the most pedestrian of accomplishments. Shit, we had it so good people were even proud of us for flat out failing at certain tasks. Whether it was doing some god awful performance at a talent show, striking out 3 times in a row in a little league game or making fun of the foreign kid’s glasses, we were rewarded with applause, ice cream and high fives. Now, no one is proud of you for anything, there’s just different degrees of disappointment.

Energy
Remember the days before energy was served exclusively in a can and our bodies just produced it naturally? It’s hard to believe that as a kid we actually had too much energy, so much so that our parents refused to serve us certain foods. Now, regardless of what I am doing, where I am or who I am with, I am pretty sure I could fall asleep on command. I need about three red bulls, two mountain dews and a line of cocaine just to finish a game of Madden.

"Music is imaginary"Elliott Carter Great Music Composer



Acclaimed American composer Elliott Carter came to Germany on a scholarship as a young man. Now, at 100, he encourages budding composers to follow their hearts.

Composer Elliott Carter is internationally recognized as one of the leading American voices of the classical music tradition. One of the extraordinary features of Carter's career is his astonishing productivity and creative vitality as he embarks on his eleventh decade. He has written more than 130 works and over 40 of these in the past decade alone.

DW's Breandain O'Shea met with Carter during the Aldeburgh Music Festival in the UK, where a special program of his music was being presented to celebrate his 100th birthday.



Deutsche Welle: Mr. Carter, you spent a period of your life in Germany - around 1964, when you wrote your much celebrated piano concerto. How did you come to Germany and how important has German music been in your career?

Elliott Carter: It was a time when the Ford Foundation and the Berliner Senate got to together to start what I think was called the Deutsche Austauschdienst (German Exchange Program) and they invited a number of artists - WH Orden was one, I can't remember the rest. You could stay there for a year. We had a very good and interesting time.

I'd had an interest in Germany since I was in college in 1920 and 1930. I use to go to Germany - Munich - hoping to learn German, but instead ended up going to Wagner and Mozart operas at the Prinzregententheater.

So I never really learned German. I was more interested in the music than the language. It is a country that I have greatly admired in many, many ways. After all, most of the music I am interested in is German. It has been an important part of my life.

Literature has had an incredible influence on you: Proust, James Joyce, Thomas Mann and the poetry of Elizabeth Bishop. You once said literature helped you discover important aspects of music that you didn't find in compositions. What do you mean by that?

Well, of course literature deals with the actual physical world and the world that we see. Music is an imaginary thing; in some ways it deals with what seems to be feelings and thoughts. Literature is much more concerned with how we think about the world around us, while music is much more "innerlich" (internal).

What advice would you give young composers today?

Young composers should always do what they love to do. If they love to make money, that's one way of writing music. And the other one is if they like to write notes.

Is there a difference?

Of course there is, because if you really want to make money then you have to write for a large public. If you write notes then you have to write what you think is good and hope that other people will like it. We are all composers that are a result of a good deal of training and that training consisted partly of understanding what audiences expect. And so as a result, the relationship of the composer to the audience is a built-in thing when you become a professional.

Then, of course, it doesn't mean that all the audience will like it.

Here we are all taught to write fugues - but then who in that audience will know what a fugue is? (Composing) is full of peculiar problems like that.

An Online Dating Game


Every once and a while a gamer seeks out a new type of gaming experience, but virtual girlfriends?! Who would have thought!
There are several news articles floating around on the internet about imaginary girlfriends. A search on google using the terms eBay Imaginary Girlfriend will turn up several blog posts and even news stories from more reliable sources such as Fox News Around 2003/2004 eBay featured auctions for virtual girlfriends and virtual dates. Women, many in college, would post a picture and offer their services as a pretend or imaginary girlfriend to single and lonely men.
These long distant relationship services usually consisted of an online chat, a few emails a month, perhaps some pictures, and a hand written love letter or two. The auctions were very popular and many women would easily make upward near $100 a month, sometimes more, by offering these long distant virtual or imaginary girlfriend services.
Somehow something went wrong. Somewhere, despite the spirit of good entrepreneurship, some ladies started to take advantage of the lonely men in the world. Though the services would be offered and the single men would pay for them, some virtual girls never carried out their duties as an imaginary or virtual girlfriend, thus conning some guys out of hundred of dollars.

"Imaginary Boyfriend"

An ironic thing happened this week when a writer for UMM, a magazine some consider to be the Canadian Maxim, was interviewing Leah Renee about her quickly rising dance hit single 'iBF (Imaginary Boyfriend)' for its Summer 2009 issue.

Far more than just a typical squeaky clean pop princess, the New York based singer and songwriter mentioned that she was reading 'Scar Tissue,' Red Hot Chili Peppers vocalist Anthony Keidis' best-selling 2004 drug addiction memoir.

She told the journalist that, while she's focusing on R&B influenced dance/pop as an artist, she grew up on a heavy dose of hard rock, including Guns N' Roses and Black Sabbath. Her father and brother are big rock fans and long-haired Harley riders who had a major influence on Leah's musical sensibilities.

While there's more to Leah than meets the eye, it's plain to see that she's an out and out dance sensation as her 'iBF' remix leaped 10 slots this week to No 38 on the FMQB Dance Chart, a dynamic and eclectic list featuring superstars from Taylor Swift and Maroon 5 to Madonna, Flo Rida and Kelly Clarkson.

The track also remains at No 1 on IDJPOOL - Chicago's April Dance Chart, No 10 on both the DJ Mag Dancefloor Destroyers House Chart and XPressbeats Top Ten House Chart, and No 20 on XPressbeats Top 50 Most Wanted Chart. 'iBF' is also the No 2 Breakout track on the dance chart of the Mass Pool DJ Association.

'iBF' is being spun on XM, AOL Music, Fusionradio, iPartyradio, B91, DMX and stations like WDRE, WKIE, KNHC, WBZC and WMPH.

The week of April 17, Leah was featured on Myspace Celebrity under Rising Star. Last week's celebrity icon was Ryan Seacrest. The page also featured Tila, Nicole Richie, David Cook, David Archuleta, Jewel and Ashley Tisdale. Leah was on CBS Radio New York on Wednesday, April 15 and was interviewed by Matt Simpson, the Director of Music Content, CBS Radio Digital Media Group.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Guy is Cheating


From changes in behavior to mysterious disappearances, signs that your guy could be stepping out on you.

It’s every woman’s worst relationship fear that her man is cheating. We’ve all heard the statistic: half of all men cheat. And some experts say that number is even closer to three quarters. Could it be happening to you? Aside from finding lipstick on his collar, a mysterious condom in his pocket or, yes, a phone number on a napkin (helpful hints but unlikely clichés!), there are some red flags to watch out for to tip you off that something fishy might be going on.

The following are six signs that should raise your eyebrows:

1. He’s Acting Differently.
The most telltale sign of a cheating man is that he’s acting differently than the way he used to. If any of the signals below describe your guy’s usual actions, don’t freak out and immediately assume he’s having an affair; he’s probably just being his quirky self. What you should be suspicious of is new developments, says Barbara Feld, LCSW, a couple’s therapist at Park Avenue Relationship Consultants in New York City. She says you should ask yourself, “Is what’s happening different than normal? Is he showing a real change in behavior?” If he’s always been private, hasn’t ever had the highest sex drive, or often flakes out on plans, that’s just who he is. It’s when he starts to be that way and never was before that you should start asking questions.

2. He’s Avoiding You.
If your guy has suddenly started coming home much later, seems to be making excuses to be out of the house, starts going away with out you on the weekends, or just generally seems to be avoiding you, that’s a clear indication of trouble in your relationship. M. Gary Neuman, a licensed family counselor and the author of “The Truth About Cheating” found that 61 percent of cheating men said they started spending more time away from home. 55 percent of men about to cheat said the same thing. No matter how busy your guy may be, he should be making an effort to see you (because, hello – he loves you, right?). If he’s stopped making time for you, it’s not at all unreasonable to wonder if he’s making time for someone else.

3. You’re Having Less/Different Sex.
You might think that cheating men stop sleeping with their partners completely. But that’s not always the case. According to M. Gary Neuman, a little less than half of cheating men report having less sex with their partner. Others keep having sex so that they don’t raise suspicions – sneaky b_ s. So be alert to the amount of sex you’re having, but most of all, pay attention to the quality of the sex. Therapist Barbara Feld says sometimes when a guy is having an affair, the quantity of sex remains the same, but it’s the sex itself that changes. Maybe it used to be very romantic, and feel more like making love, and now it just feels like plain old sex.

4. His General Response to You Has Changed.
If a guy is having an affair, he may stop acting like the sweet, romantic man you fell in love with. Maybe he used to be very loving and kind towards you, but now he seems to get annoyed easily, be critical, or pick fights. If he’s consistently not being affectionate with you, don’t brush it off. Try to figure out why he’s different – and what could be distracting him, or making him feel guilty.

5. He Has Suddenly Become Very Private.
It’s just not normal for your guy to always go into a different room to answer calls, keep his cell phone in his car, or get really private about his bills (unless, of course, your man is a privacy freak and you knew that going in). But if he suddenly stops checking his e-mail in front of you, has turned the bathroom into a phone booth, and has redirected the bills to his office, it’s a fair guess than an affair is under way.

6. He is UnreliableQuite simply, says Barbara Feld, “is he where he says he will be?” If he’s never where he says he’s going to be, it’s a certain sign he’s lying to you about something. Maybe he says he’ll be at the office, but you call and he’s not there. Or he says he’s with a friend, and that friend then calls looking for him. Everyone’s plans change sometimes, but if your guy is consistently not where he says he will be, it’s very possible it’s because he’s with another woman.

What to Do?
If your guy is showing any of these six signs, talk with him about it. Tell him things feel different than they used to, and you want to know what’s going on. “If he tells you everything is fine but you know it’s not, continue to pursue the issue,” says Barbara Feld. “You can also suggest, ‘let’s talk to someone together,’ and get couples therapy.”Don’t turn a blind eye on your relationship. If things are bad, getting bad, or just feel strange, do something about it. Even if you guy isn’t having an affair, all the signs above could be signals that he’s about to. By addressing – and working with him to fix – whatever is going on in your relationship, you can prevent an affair from ever happening in the first place. If you’re noticing negative changes or problems in your relationship, address them now, while they’re still small. Maintaining a strong relationship with open communication is one of the best things you can do to ensure fidelity—both on his part, and on yours.